Dion Captures Liberal Leadership: Will He Be Prime Minister?


In terms of seismic shifts, I think we’ve seen greater. However the election of Stephan Dion as Federal Liberal leader represent real change for our political landscape. Add Mayor Randy Hope, Chatham-Kent’s own version of Stephane Dion (a man that should never be underestimated) and we have a myriad of possibilities ahead for politicos.

I have always liked and admired Stephan Dion. He was a product of his time. He was handpicked out of Quebec in a direct attempt by Prime Minister Chretien to stem separatism. On January 25, 1996, he was sworn into the federal cabinet. And in Quebec, especially among separatists he was looked at as a French Uncle Tom. And even within the Liberal caucus there were some who didn’t see the reason for him to be handpicked. But in doing it, Chretien made a stroke of genius.

Dion fought the separatists straight up. And he exposed the hypocrisy of their arguments, even to the extent as exposing hard-line separatists with racism. Dion was the architect of the Liberal “clarity bill” which was the “Plan B” get tough strategy on Quebec. In the process he emasculated Quebec separatism and set the stage for the demise of the western based Reform party. And in the end, Canadians are more unified.

However, that was then and this now. Yes, Dion stunned some Liberals when he came from dark horse territory to defeat Michael Ignatieff on the fourth ballot. I had picked Dion to win, but I was far from being supremely confident in my prediction. I thought Ignatieff didn’t have a lot of growth potential, ditto with Bob Rae. Add the Ontario baggage to Rae, rightly or wrongly and Rae had problems too.

So I was thinking either Kennedy or Dion. If and when they joined forces there would be a winner. I felt sorry for Kennedy. Close is important only in grenades or horseshoes and he’s been close too many times. He almost beat Dalton McGuinty for Liberal leader way back when after leading on every ballot. If a few votes had went the other way on the second ballot last weekend he might have been leader.

Some political observers were surprised that Dion ran in the 2004 federal election. Although he had been a very important part of the Chretien cabinet, Paul Martin left him out, only to bring him back later as environment minister. With the Liberals failing miserably to fulfill Kyoto, Dion didn’t catch much of the blame. Having been swept out of power earlier this year, Dion re-incarnated himself as Kyoto’s friend, a sustainable development leadership candidate that even included green signs.

Objectively speaking it was a bit crass, but in the short half lives of political memories, nobody in the Liberal party cared. Dion, in my opinion shone in his defense of Canada. Adding a perceived green plank to his resume only helped. At the end of the day Saturday, Dion was the purest Liberal. It wasn’t even close. The Liberal establishment got steamrolled.

Still the optics are a bit strange. Dion’s English isn’t polished and his defense of Canada in Quebec has made him a pariah among Quebec nationalists. However, he’s smart, determined and not prone to either giving up easy or being unprepared in any way. He has a quiet charisma and many admirable qualities, which lay beneath that, be-speckled professor look.

Will he be PM? I think so, although I’m not sure when. Keep in mind with four and possibly five parties being in parliament getting a majority government is very difficult for any Canadian parliamentary leader. If you spot the Bloc Quebecois 50 seats, it’s literally impossible for anybody to get a majority. The only way the Chretien Liberals used to do it was getting 100 plus seats in Ontario. With Reform and the PC’s splitting the right wing vote, it was the fast lane for the Liberal party. Now, that’s all over with and Stephen Harper has taken advantage.

When Dion arrived on Parliament Hill in 1996 he used to carry a leather knapsack and ride a bicycle. At that time, like many times before he was dismissed and underestimated in what he could do. In many ways, that’s a bit like our present Mayor Randy Hope. I met and worked with Randy when he was a very young MPP back in the early 90’s. He openly admitted he didn’t know a lot about agriculture, but his honesty was embraced by rural Chatham-Kent. At the end of the day, I’m sure some of his rural soul searching in the early 90’s came back to help him in the municipal election polls of 2006. Like Dion, don’t underestimate Randy Hope. He knows how to get things done, and I’m sure getting a little older, just like the rest of us makes him a bit better.

So keep your political antenna up. Dion and Harper will surely go at each other in an election in March, April or yes, even sooner. Poll numbers don’t matter. If the Conservatives are up, they’ll pull the plug early. If they aren’t, the opposition will. It should lead to interesting times ahead.