So what’s the $700 billion dollar question?  Don’t even think about it.  I know you are tired of this sub-prime mortgage mess.  While the Americans are working it out down south let’s focus on what’s going on here.  We’ve got an election going on.

It has surely been a snore.  Simply put, we don’t have a Barack Obama or Sarah Palin roaming the land, wowing audiences with their newness.  However, in my opinion we’ve got some compelling political figures, but rarely are they ever in a forum where they can be questioned.  Our Canadian political campaigns are so sterile.  Have a news conference in the morning followed by a photo op and there you have it.    Nothing would be more compelling.

Let me give you a few political tips I swear by.  Each election I visit a couple of web sites which are pretty good at predicting the outcome.  For Canadian political results go to http://www.electionprediction.org/.  They use intuitive methods combined with statistical analysis to make their picks.  Over several elections, they are pretty good.  For American election predictions, go to http://www.realclearpolitics.com/.  It’s an exhaustive site which gives a good synopsis of what’s about to happen.

If you don’t like either one of those sites, I like to say all you have to do is “do the math.”  For instance the 2008 election is a petri dish for “doing the math.”  In fact Stephen Harper seemingly has already done it and that’s the reason he’s called this election.  When he adds up all the numbers, the present time gives him the best numbers.

For instance in our current political arrangement with four parties in the House of Commons and the Green party on the outside, simple math tells you its almost impossible to for any political party to get a majority.  For instance where is the growth going to come from for anybody to get over a 154 seats in the Commons?  With the opposition on the left fractured, this liberal country is starting to default to a minority of Conservatives.

What’s different this time is the emergence of the Green party into double digits in National polls.  That will get them elected in absolutely no ridings.  However, with their rise to 10% in national polls, they are poaching votes from other parties on the left like the NDP and Liberals.  It used to be that 40% in national polls would get you a majority.  However with the emergence of the Greens, that number now is said to be closer to 36 or 37% in national polls.

That means as of now, if the vote splits go the way they look, Stephen Harper has a fighting chance for a majority.  That’s a bit of a flyer but “the math” is working toward that depending on how fickle Quebec voters are with the Bloc Quebecois.

Not everybody is in tune to this.  For instance when I read the national writers in the big city newspaper, its obvious, they all have done the math and know what may be coming.  However, when you talk to the man on the street, most of us don’t know.  Hoping and guessing what may happen is something from the 19th and 20th century.  In 2008, its all about the market research, its all about the overnight tracking, its all about the polls.

From my vantage point, I’ve had the privilege of meeting all of our political leaders minus Elizabeth May.  Most of that happened in 2006 at a time when all of them were vying for power.  The exception to that rule was Stephane Dion, who I met in 2007 after he had assumed the Liberal leadership.  In my opinion any of the three who I’ve met would make a very good Prime Minister.

At this point I think it will be a Conservative minority.  Yes, I’ve done the math.  However, much will depend on whether the Bloc Quebecois implodes in Quebec with their voters going Tory.  What you have in Quebec is a popular Liberal Premier, a Parti Quebecois, which finished third in the last provincial election, and a federal government that calls Quebec a nation.  All of this means, the Bloc is losing its relevance, like its looking for a federalist bogeyman which everybody is growing tired of.  Simply put, the 1960’s ended almost 50 years ago and Quebecers are ready to move on.

In August of 2007 I was asked to chair a meeting with Stephane Dion and also lead a farm rally introducing him.  Long story short in the afternoon rally the crowd was rocking and rolling and by the time I introduced Dion, he was having a ball.  I’m sure during this election campaign he sees nothing like that.  Ditto for the other political leaders minus Elizabeth May.

The long and short of that is it’s such a pity.  Canadians are seeing a packaged, sterilized campaign put together by market researchers, focus groups and people who don’t like a crowd.  There is no excitement and glamour here.  However, I’d like that to change.  First one to show me some passion wins.