Iran’s Changing Political Culture: How Should the West React?

By Philip Shaw M.Sc.

With Dr. A.K. Enamul Haque Ph.D

There are few world leaders like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.  At least I could say that with some degree of certainty and Western circles.  I’ve said it seemingly 1000 times in this column that the leader of Iran cannot be taken seriously in the West because of his Anti-Semitism and his public notions about the Holocaust.  However I know in the rest of the world he is not quite seen the same way.  Needless to say after the last presidential election in Iran, that country will never be the same.

I have never been to Iran and I must admit the American hostages, who were captured in 1979, and its present-day President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad shape many of my views regarding Iran.  However I learned many years ago under the tutelage of Dr. Haque that the world isn’t quite the way I see it.   Iran has a burgeoning population and a rich history, which sometimes is characterized the wrong way in Western circles.  Reaching out for some understanding between the two cultures seemingly would be good for everybody in 2009.

President Obama certainly gave the world a glimpse of a new outreach toward Iran earlier this year. In his inaugural address Mr. Obama talked about a “new era of responsibility “, where a clenched fist could be turned into an outstretched hand.  I know he was talking about many things that day and drawing several analogies but it was pretty clear some of it was meant for the Islamic Republic of Iran.  As the Obama era dawned I was hoping for an opening between the Western world and Iran.

That speech was made when Dr. Haque and I were on the small Bangladeshi island of St. Martin’s.  So I only got to see snippets of it after-the-fact.  A few days later I flew into Dubai and I couldn’t get over my proximity to Iran.  I saw several airliners headed toward Tehran.  A few hours later the aircraft that I was in flying back to Toronto flew over Tehran. It was a beautiful sight.  As I looked down from 35,000 feet I can only wonder if the people under those snowcapped mountains north of Tehran would be able to join the greater global community.

We all know what happened next.  The morning after the June 12 presidential election the Islamic Republic news agency, Iran’s official news agency, announced that with 66% of the votes counted Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won the election.  The runner up Mir-Hossein Mousavi had received 33% of the votes cast.  A world away in Ontario Canada I was quite surprised.  However nothing could have prepared me for the violence, which erupted in Tehran and other cities in Iran.  Through a period of weeks and still to this day, supporters of the opposition and boosters of more openness in Iranian society have been protesting the election result as a fraud.  For ordinary Iranians it is a tragedy.  Who knows what it means for our greater world, especially in a world in south-central Asia.

For the people of Iran it is turned into a very messy situation.   You could make an argument that the divisions are between those who want to hang onto power by violence and those possibly younger people who want the rule of law, human rights and greater personal freedoms to be sustained.  This in turn would lead to an end to Iran’s long-time international isolation.   Adding to that chorus over the last few days have been conservative Iranians who have joined with some others from the Iranian political culture calling for justice.  With nearly 30 people killed during the political violence, it is certainly put a black mark on the present Iranian political leadership.

It surely also complicated the reproach to Iran from President Barack Obama.  How is he supposed to react now after many people have been killed and arrested?  The bottom line is change is likely to come very slowly in Iran as historically there has always been a combination of ruling clerics and politicians who rule the country.  Also too, US meddling in the past still paints the water in that part of the world.  Obama needs to tread carefully over the next few weeks and months with Iran not to add legitimacy to the people who have done the killing.

My colleague Enamul will certainly have a different view of this; we have debated many times the Iran question.  Looking ahead to the future in the short-term looks rocky as one side is pitted against the other with compromise in short supply.  Is there an honest broker that can help get it done and bring peace to the streets of Tehran again?  I don’t know.  Simply put the status quo is dangerous.  The winds of change might he starting to blow.

Winds of Change in Iran, is it coming?
A.K. Enamul Haque PhD.

Like Phil and many others, I also was quite curious about Iran. There are few things that even the people opposing the Islamic rule in Iran agreed in the past – a free and fair election.  Somehow the Iranian election authority maintained a posture that they were capable of holding a free and fair election.  It was indeed the strength of the Iranian government after the fall of Shah in 1979. To me, it was because of this, the Iranian government, despite being opposed by the West was still respected in the East.  We in the East, understand the grudge, the bitterness, the feeling of resentment of the West when the Shah of Iran fell into the hand of Imam Khomeni.  Khomeni humiliated and embarrassed the US government through his “April Fool” movement when his “Islamic Revolution” succeeded to oust the Shah of Iran on the 1st of April 1979.

The story afterwards, is well recorded in the history book but the maturity of new regime was evident when Khomenei decided not to take over the power himself. New Iranian leadership developed a complex rule for governing the country (diagram below/ source:Wikipedia).  As a result, successive Iranian governments could be formed through peaceful elections – that includes winning of the election by Ahmedinejad in 2005.

Frankly speaking, I think, this election is a blow to this image of Iran.  Many individuals like me are not going to be happy to learn that the election was rigged in favor of the incumbent President.

It shows the inherent weakness of the government to face their own citizens.  The Iranian government is, of course, quick to blame the West [as usual] for this and I believe that there is some truth to it too.  But the fact is that many Iranians came onto the street opposing the election result and it is a moral blow to the Iranian leaders.  Only history will say who did what to make this happen but for now the Government of Iran is on the defensive side – trying to defend “killing” of its citizens by its own security forces!

Assuming that the Iranian version of the chaos is true, that is, the US government orchestrated the whole trouble, the response by the Iranian government is obviously immature.  It shows the unpreparedness of the Iranian government to deal with the crisis, their inability to predict a political crisis and their failure to keep a brave face against their critics.

President Ahmedinejad might have forgotten that while challenging a super power like the US, the only strength they had was their moral power – where they were able to prove to the world that they too can hold free and fair elections and can change political power through peaceful means.  The Iranian leadership must work hard to establish that they still have the moral superiority in order to regain the support from the people in the East.