ABC’s of the Nuke story in the Persian Gulf.
A. K.Enamul Haque Ph. D.

World politics has become hot again. Iran is defying the UN, Chad is angry at Sudan, France is angry at the Sudan. Nepal is still in trouble, a suicide squad has just attacked Tel Aviv. Afghanistan is still hot while in Iraq government is virtually non-existent only a few months after a general election. What can I say? Who to blame?

There are many candidates who could be blamed for each of these crisis. However, the major crisis is that of a leader. In the twenty-first century our major problem seems to be the absence of a leader who could be trusted.

Here in Bangladesh we always thought that the West is more trust worthy than the East. This is why during our war of liberation the war was fought on BBC. Mark Tally was our hero. When people were in crisis they turned to him and the BBC because he told the truth.

All this has changed since the Iraq war. Now the West is seen as a mischievous party who would take the first step to prevent an attack on itself and that they stand only behind their own interests and not that of humanity. As a result, it has been very difficult for Mr. Bush and Mr. Blair to fully convince the “other world” that they are even telling the truth.

The IAEA is also acting in a partisan manner when they leak information to western nations. To me it exists to guard the Western interests against possible threats. However, I am not fully clear about the threat that Iran poses against the West.

Here I want Phil to clarify few things for me and also for our readers. I can see the following threats: (a) if Iran somehow masters the nuclear science then it is possible that Iran may become a proud nation. National chauvinism may sometimes be fatal. This was true for Hitler’s Germany; (b) It is possible that nuclear technology may find its way in the hand of Bin Laden’s team and in that case Osama may use it against western interest; (c) Iran may become competitive in terms of technical capabilities in which case it would be difficult to continue to rule the Middles East in the way the West has been doing ever since the birth of Israel in 1948; and (d) Iran may become a super power of the region.

Let me start my observation with (a). Iranian leaders have been telling us that Iran had never attacked its neighbor in its entire history unless it was provoked. This was true during the Iraq-Iran war of the eighties. No one in the west seemed to at least listen to it. On the contrary the US has been telling the world that Iran is going to attack!!! Whom? No one knows. If you listen to the western rhetoric when Pakistan was seeking the nuclear technology the stories were the same. After few years the west accepts Pakistan. This is to me the difference between fiction and reality. The western media as well as their political leaders are living in a world of fantasy.

Take the second argument. Can a group of people like Bin Laden get their hands on such technology if Iran masters it? This is to me a joke. Nuclear technology is not like a AK47. It is much more serious than a AK47 because an accident could jeopardize a nation! Once gangs like Bin Laden gets it they will first threaten the Iranian government. Do not forget the Taliban were less friendly to Iran than Pakistan. Most of the current rumors lead us to believe that Bin Laden has more friends in Pakistan than in Iran. And Pakistan has not traded the secret to Bin Laden either. It is important to understand the difference between the individual Bin Laden and a state. The individual Bin Laden unfortunately was created, nurtured and trusted by the west!! None of the regional countries liked it except Pakistan who was dictated by Washington in their fight against the Soviets.

A stronger Iran is against the American and British interests in the Middle East. This was also true if Iraq was strong. Now that Iraq is no longer a threat it is time to deal with Iran. However, I am not sure why a strong Iran is a threat to France, Germany, Russia and China.

The geo-politics of the region might change if Iran is really a super power. However, this is an Arabian night story to me. Iran cannot be a superpower just because it has the nuke. We should understand the world. According to various indicators no one can establish this. It is truly an Arabian Night story.

It is exactly why none of Iran’s neighbors are talking about this. The people living around Iran are rather quiet while the dreamers are busy in Washington. Do you get the story?

Ahmadinejad Is Part of the ABC’s in a Nuclear Persian Gulf

By Philip Shaw M.Sc.

It seems so simple. When I read Enamul’s comments about Iran it seems all quite reasonable. Why can’t the West just leave well enough alone? Why is Iran such a boogieman in Western capitals? Why can’t it be an Arabian Night story here too?

For those of us in the West, Iran or “Eye-ran” as it is pronounced in some circles represents what is bad about Muslim fundamentalism run amok. Images especially in the American media harkens back to when Iran took hostages from the American embassy in 1979. Canada helped smuggle six of them out. That episode took down an American President. It left a bad taste in the United States, which still lasts until today.

Then you have Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the President of Iran. Let me quote from the March 2006 East West when I wrote this about Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

“In the west his public pronouncements denying the holocaust and his views of Israel are more than a dead end. They represent something that is abhorrent in this society. So when it comes to the west playing coy over Ahmadinejad’s nuclear ambitions it’s a non-starter in some western circles. It will not happen in others. The American view supported by some of the Europeans as well as Israel is seen as the only answer. How can you trust Iran with this leader at the helm? For some of you in the east or developing world, you must find this thinking repulsive. Why should good people in the developing world be denied clean electricity from nuclear power? Why should the west that meddled relentlessly throughout Iran’s history try to deny Iranians a better life? And yes, some of you look at George W. Bush the same way the west looks at Iran’s Ahmadinejad. Yes, the world in unfair.”

That was from two months ago and I must say that hasn’t changed in Western circles. It’s too bad because the Iranian people are yearning to breathe free and enjoy the vestiges of nuclear power. However, with a leader like Ahmadinejad this will not come easily.

It’s being made even more difficult by the Americans. As many of you know I live only 15 kilometres from the American border. Living so close you can sometimes have your thoughts skewed by the constant barrage of American media vitriol. I hear it constantly. However, being on the Canadian side I try to listen carefully. Iran to me is not North Korea, but our Americans friends seem to be pushing them there.

Why you say? There is no question that Iran is being ruled by an unsavoury regime. However they have tried in their own way to meet demands of western nations. Haroon Siddiqui wrote the following a few weeks ago in his column titled ” We should not play Bush game of chicken on Iran in the Toronto Star.

“They (Iran) offered to set up a consortium to let other nations partially own and operate its commercial enrichment facility, thereby removing the secrecy around it, or, alternatively, ditch that facility in return for a small experimental facility (which would pose little threat of nuclear proliferation), along with an ensured supply of nuclear fuel, plus security assurances that it won’t be whacked (by the U.S. or Israel).”

The American rejected this, as did other western nations. Ahmadinejad is being backed into a corner. Will he go the North Korea route and “damn the torpedoes” full speed ahead? Or is this just an “Arabian Night story” which Enamul refers to? I don’t know.

But what I do know is this “Iran nuke thing” has “juice” in the United States. What do I mean? Simply put the notion of Iran having nukes or anything close to nukes is a non-starter within a large political constituency in the United States. Enamul says attack whom? Many Americans would say Israel. Many Americans would say Bin Laden will attach thru Iran. Yes, Enamul there might be a group of dreamers in Washington, but its all a matter of perspective. Remember what you once told me. “Its all based on history.” In the west, some have a long memory.