Stephen Harper and the Iggy Effect

Over the last few years you may have noticed a few pictures from the Canadian political landscape dotting At Issue.Â It seems like a world away now, but back in 2006 local farmers were on a “war footing” trying to get a good income stabilization policy for Canadian agriculture.Â At the time your loyal scribe had a chance to meet many a political leader of the time.

I’m sure that was quite a forgettable experience for our political leaders.Â At the time I made a DVD from a local farm rally, which was sold to help the Dresden food bank.Â It was successful, raising over $500 for the food bank.Â However, at the time the farmers made sure they gave one of those DVD’s to each politician who came through Chatham-Kent.Â I dunno, if Paul Martin, Stephen Harper, or Jack Layton ever watched it, but at least Jack Layton paid $5 for it and that went to benefit local people who didn’t have enough to eat.

So that brings me to the political realities of 2009.Â Gone from the scene is Stephane Dion and back from the dead seems to be the Liberal party.Â The Nanos poll released over the weekend had the Liberal party at 34% in the polls, with the Conservatives at 33%.Â In other words, itâ€™s a political dead heat and depending on where that support is coming from, its pretty obvious the Liberal party is back, at least in the polls.

Why you say?Â Let’s just call it the “Iggy effect.”Â Say what you want about Michael Ignatieff.Â He might have Romanov heritage, but the man has presence.Â When he talks, he makes sense and he speaks with a “stability” which the Liberal party has not had in several years, maybe even as far back as Jean Chretien.Â He has charisma and he seems to be very comfortable in his own skin, something that is not always present in today’s politicians.

In a nutshell, that’s why I believe the Liberals are back in the game again.Â They are still broke, don’t have much going on at the organizational level, but they have a leader who I believe Canadians have a respect for.Â Forget everything else, because the Liberal party has such deep roots in this country, which counts for something.Â Until recently they have been able to beat the Conservatives with one hand tied around their back.Â So if the “Iggy effect” takes hold, maybe Canadians are going to be in for some “Obama” type change.

Ignatieff’s approach seems so balanced.Â He has lain it out very clearly what it will take to get Liberal support for the Conservative budget which will come down post January 27th.Â He has also told the Conservatives that he will not stand for constant “confidence motions” which effectively challenge the opposition to defeat the government.Â It’s pretty obvious the threat is, “that he will” if pushed.Â Stephen Harper seemingly realizes it.

Problems for Ignatieff might exist still in the Liberal party.Â There was no big bash in getting him elected leader.Â In effect it was the GG’s decision to prorogue parliament that effectively cooked the coalition’s idea of forming government.Â When that happened, it looked like an election might be coming soon.Â Anti-Dion forces in the Liberal party realized they needed a new leader fast and pragmatism swept the day.Â Romeo LaBlanc stepped back and so did Bob Rae.Â Iggy took it all in stride.

However, if you read Bob Rae’s body language it was all about being in the right place at the very wrong time.Â He was right in demanding some type of democratic exercise to put the leadership to a vote, but it was obvious he could count.Â He knew in the super heated political atmosphere where a leader needed to be picked quickly he didn’t have the votes.Â Stepping aside was the right thing to do and if it eventually bites “Iggy” in the behind, those are the breaks.Â Needless to say not all Liberals will see it that way.

It should lead to some great political theatre come the end of the month.Â With our global economy contracting, its pretty clear things are not good with the Canadian economy.Â With Canada exporting 80% of what we produce to the United States and importing 70% of what we need from them too, it was pretty obvious, this recession would wash up on our shores.Â It has and in electoral rich Ontario and Quebec, somebody is going to have to take the political blame.

Will that be Stephen Harper or will it be “Iggy?”Â I dunno, but I do know the next political hiccup we have the GG won’t be in any mood to listen to any Canadian political leader.Â That means the next time, we’re going to be in an election, with the last one only being in October.Â We’ll see if Stephen Harper has any juice left.Â This time, he’s got to fight “Iggy” and it should be a much fairer fight.

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