It is a rite of spring, at least in my area. I’m talking about replanting soybeans, something that happens on a regular basis on the heavy clay soils of South Lambton County in southwestern Ontario.  The biggest risk to soybean production in this area is always getting the soybeans out of the ground. Untimely rains especially when soybeans are emerging can often entomb them.  That is exactly what has happened in spades over the last couple of weeks to your loyal scribe.  As one crop consultant told me, we had so much fun planting the first time, we now get to do it all over again.
 
     It is not quite like that of course. Most of us, don’t like replanting but the thought of it is much worse than doing it. It just represents additional risk which some farmers have to engage in each year. I have sandier soils that don’t crust over in a million years. However, my clay soils often will or sometimes the soybeans will break their necks as they try to push a crust.  Needless to say, it usually affects me on 10% of my acreage annually. However, the last couple of years has been substantially higher. 
 
     It’s all part of the risk management game.  Doesn’t matter where you are on this globe sometimes there are unique challenges locally where risks are higher. Farmers are continually engaged in different risk management strategies to avoid this. Unfortunately, lots of times it just boils down to luck. Pounding rains can come anytime.
 
     Of course, when we aren’t mitigating our production risk, we also have that marketing risk always on-going making things a little bit more difficult. Today we got the latest WASDE report from the USDA.  Let’s just say there was no surprises there, the June report is usually a yawner and that’s what it turned out to be.
 
     USDA lowered old crop ending stocks by 50 million bushels which ultimately changed new crop ending stocks by the same down to 1.75 billion bushels.  The US crop is still set to come in at 15.82 billion bushels based on the yield forecast of 181 bushels per acre.  We will have to wait till the end of the month to see if USDA actually change is its acreage from the 95.3 million acres already predicted.  Add some “hot and dry” into the mix and it should make markets a little bit more interesting as we head into July.
 
       Soybeans and wheat were left pretty well status quo from last month’s USDA report.  The grain market did not react in any way finishing the day mixed.  As I said last week, it’s almost like the market thinks the crop is made.  What’s it going take for the opposite to happen?
     Maybe it’s a ten-day heatwave sitting over Iowa. Maybe it’s a sudden drop in crop ratings or a geopolitical flash that finally wakes the wheat market from its nap and drags corn with it. Whatever the case, the market doesn’t seem too interested right now — and that adds to the marketing risk that’s always humming in the background.
     Out in the fields, I’ve been spending more time fixing up crusted-over soybean acres than I’d like to admit. I remind myself this is what we sign up for. Plant. Pray. Replant. Repeat.  But it’s the marketing risk that really makes you twitch. At least with replanting, you know what you’re dealing with — seed, fuel, time. With markets, it’s different. One day the bids are there, the next they’re gone.
     Who knows what next week will bring.  One thing we do know is that Canada will be the centre of attention next week as world leaders gather in Kananaskis Alberta.  it will be the first visit to Canada from President Trump this term. So, you know there will be some fireworks especially when other world leaders are being invited like Indian Prime Minister Modi and President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico.  Who knows, we might even be getting a new Canada United States trade and security agreement. Often, agriculture can be affected by these agreements especially between the United States and Canada.
    So, we move forward, we scout fields, watch markets, and wait for the next shoe to drop — or not. Maybe July brings heat. Maybe it doesn’t. The markets will decide when they’re good and ready.
In the meantime, the soybeans are going in (again), the corn’s growing, and combining wheat isn’t that far off. As always, the crop’s not made, but it’s getting closer every day. Let’s hope the weather plays nice.