It looks like Canadians will be going to the polls April 28th.  With the country inundated with problems caused by tariffs from the United States and China, real leadership with a fresh mandate is needed.  That will be about as close as you’ll ever get me these days to talking about politics.

A few weeks ago, I talked about getting “back on defence” to defend our farms from the onslaught that we see in front of us. There is no question that western farmers are seeing some of the toughest conditions with 100% Chinese tariffs on canola oil and meal. At the same time, they face a possible 25% tariff from the United States. In many ways there’s nowhere to go, a very tough situation for very important sector of our agricultural economy.

The Chinese of course did not stop there, slapping a 25% tariff on some Canadian seafood exports. It is just an example how we’re getting hit by all sides.  Of course, we wait until April 2nd when are American adversaries plan to announce to the world where their tariffs are going next. At that point we will see how Canada retaliates.

It is certainly on the mind of everybody.  Earlier your loyal scribe found himself in Stratford Ontario speaking to the annual meeting of the Hensall Co-op.  My topic was the grain markets as always but of course I was also talking about the tariff situation and what I saw for the future. If there’s ever been an issue that has galvanized Canadians it is this current problem. Almost everybody in the room had a story and an opinion of the problems these tariffs brought us.

It is all so hard to know.  Of course, it is easy to paint a tough scenario. My training as an agricultural economist makes me default to certain dire predictions. I do predict lower economic growth, higher unemployment, higher prices and fewer choices but the more I think about it there might be somewhat a path ahead.  If we can be nimble enough and create enough value, surely, we will find a way.  Needless to say, that’s probably hard to believe for western Canadian canola farmers who find themselves in a market rejecting them.

We prefer this world without tariffs but having said that we must continue on.  We do know that some of the tariff action between countries actually puts Canada in a position to win. For instance, the Europeans slapped 25% tariffs on the Americans in response to the Americans slapping tariffs on Europeans steel and aluminum. Canada already enjoys a preferential treatment into Europe under the CETA agreement.  Now with American grain tariffed by Europe it puts Ontario corn and soybeans in a better position to be exported.

There are similar situations around the world for grain from various countries. For instance, China does not tariff Canadian soybeans, at least not yet. That opens up opportunities for the import of select non-GMO soybeans in containers from Canada.  Of course, you can also import GMO soybeans within containers but at the present time buyers are waiting until the April 2nd tariffs are announced. There is everything in between.  Soybean exporters who are nimble can send shipments at a moment’s notice to other destinations. These markets might not be as lucrative but satisfying customer needs especially in the time of tariffs will certainly go a long way.

I recently heard a market presentation from Dwight Gerling, the Chief Executive Officer and owner of DG Global.   Simply put, Dwight is a great Canadian story of a Saskatchewan farm boy doing well and building DG Global over the last 20 years into one of Canada’s largest exporters of containerized agricultural commodities. It was a joy to listen to Dwight’s presentation as he’s obviously a master at the world cash market for food grade soybeans. At one point he described replacing African exports of soybeans into Pakistan with Canadian soybeans. I asked him where Africa’s soybeans came from, and he told me Nigeria, Benin, Togo and other countries.  I let Chatgpt tell me more and it added in South Africa, Zambia, Ghana, Ethiopia and others. Who knew?  That’s why we must have an open mind.  It seems with determination, there always is another way.

Listening to Dwight was a bit of a breath of fresh air because he reminded us that there were still markets open despite the tariff war.  Doing our due diligence and working hard does make a difference.

As we move ahead it’s pretty clear the shift is on. As a country and as Canadian farmers we need to defend our farms, but we also need to shift gears and get things done a different way.  The path in many ways might be brutal like it is for canola right now. However, the shift is on as we’re being forced into new things which might not be necessarily bad at the end of the day. In fact, it might set us up for better times ahead being able to withstand things we never thought were possible. Clearly, at this moment in 2025 we are all affected. So, let’s roll up our sleeves and get to work, as Canadians, we can get this done.