Usually, after February the 15th we have more good days than bad days with regard to the winter weather.  In fact, a lot of times in southwestern Ontario there are even hints of spring. Not so much in fact some of my DTN readers here in Ontario have told me this is an old-fashioned winter. As I face going to next week the weather gods are talking about another major storm hitting southwestern Ontario and some bone chilling cold air next week. It makes some of those harvest pictures from Brazil I’ve seen this past week on social media seem so enticing.

While we have been engaged in this typical Canadian winter there has been a lot going on around the world and surely a lot going on in the production fields in Brazil and Argentina.  Earlier in the season we saw dryness in Brazil causing some nervousness with the same going on in Argentina. Lately the market is being concerned with rains in Brazil possibly delaying the soybean harvest and the planting of the Safrinha corn crop.   Needless to say, the agricultural production machine worldwide keeps going and from time to time we have to pause and “count the beans”.

One of our favorite bean counters was at this past week. The USDA chimed in with their latest WASDE report on Tuesday February 11th.  We didn’t get much; in fact, it was like they kicked the can down the road. The USDA laid out an unchanged domestic balance sheet for corn but put a 1 MMT cut to both Argentine and Brazilian corn production, while cutting world corn ending stocks. (China excluded).  USDA left the soybean domestic balance sheet unchanged from January. However, there was a larger than expected 3 MMT cut to the Argentinian crop.  We still have the record crop coming out of South America this year and world stocks are still out of record level.

For the record we still have the 2024/2025 corn crop coming in at 14.867 billion bushels.  Corn ending stocks are still set at 1.54 billion bushels. Soybeans are set to come in at 4.366 billion bushels with their ending stocks at 380 million bushels. That’s a lot of corn and soybeans and it makes you wonder why in such an environment prices have risen quite substantially since harvest time.

In fact, you can read almost anywhere in the agricultural market genre about the bullishness for corn prices. Cash corn prices in Ontario were up about $0.90 a bushel since harvest time.  Soybeans are up about $1.25/bu and have been even higher versus last fall.  In such a market environment you never want to be crossways with the trend.  Of course, being precise on these calls is always tenuous at best.

Soybeans continue to be harvested in Brazil leading to a record crop.  In fact, even though soybean prices are higher they did crumble back a bit this past week based on harvest action down South. At the same time, we’ve had very dry and tenuous conditions in Argentina where crop conditions are worsening. At a certain point the weather will clear here in North America giving hints of a good spring to come. Later this month we surely will from the USDA on their initial crop numbers with regard to acres in 2025. This will all lead up to what usually is a major market mover at the end of March when the USDA formalizes their acreage projections for the forthcoming year.

At this point with the prices, we have it would seem that corn should win favors when planters roll. For instance, last year we had 90.6 million acres of corn and 87.1 million acres of soybeans in United States. It only stands to reason at the present time that we could increase that corn acres number to 94 million acres and at the same time reduce soybeans down to 84.5 million acres.  Then of course, we’ll see what Mother Nature does to give us s market opportunities to price that crop profitably.

I would be remiss in 2025 in any conversation about future grain prices without a look at geopolitics.  Heck, we have geopolitics in spades this year.   Just today President Trump announced new trade intentions (Reciprocal tariffs on all majority US trading partners) ushering in a new concept in restructuring the American economy.  At the same time, he announced Ukraine, Russia and others are coming to the peace talks table.  That’s got be good for wheat production in that part of the world.

So, do we have enough variables spinning in this grain market as of now? Or do we simply have too much grain for the demand that we have.  Going further, as we all know, we’ve got a few trade problems between the United States and Canada right now.

Key is always seizing those market opportunities when they come along. Who knew, we would have such price gains since harvest time? The important thing to do is to balance all of these different market factors, within the profitability equation on your farm.  That’s always a challenge. Subsequently, if that Black Swan comes along, adjusting to it will be that much more attainable.