Bracing for Impact: Canadian Ag Commodities At Risk

It seems like forever now but your loyal scribe did help lead the biggest farm protest in Canadian history back on April the 6th, 2006.  At the time farmers were protesting the lack of a Canadian agricultural safety net to stabilize our revenues.  18 years later we have still not come close to what we wanted that day and as we look ahead, I don’t see it coming. The world has moved on, the players have changed, years have gone by.

That was quite a time for me, quite a humbling time as I was designated to lead the English voices of the farm protest that day. My French language cohort from Quebec Pierre Rheaume was a legend and I just wanted to keep up to him. We shared leadership on the stage.  That day I got to meet the late NDP leader Jack Layton, who sought me out on stage, it was quite a moment.

Looking back, you could probably make the argument that we failed in our objectives. The Harper government didn’t listen to us and the Trudeau government since then has done the same thing. The agricultural business risk management portfolio available to farmers from the federal government has only got smaller through the years and even more ineffective. However, probably one of the greatest things I have taken back from that experience had to do with politics itself. After that day, I simply didn’t feel it made any difference who was in power and how this affected farmers on the ground.  In my mind, it really didn’t matter and that’s still the way I feel.

That’s one reason I don’t do politics here and it’s also a reason why I told you so many times it doesn’t matter to me how you vote. However, from time to time we do face political winds that affect Canadian agriculture. One such geopolitical event has been erupting in Ottawa over the last couple of weeks with the culmination of the foreign interference inquiry in Ottawa. Last week the federal government kicked out several Indian government diplomats accusing them of orchestrating killings of Canadian citizens on Canadian soil.

It’s really serious stuff and something I don’t think Canada can win especially with India being the biggest country in the world. However, it didn’t take long for some western Canadian farm voices to start asking how this was all going to affect the Canadian pulse market.  India is the main buyer of Canadian pulses grown across Western Canada. It seems each year analyzing that market is a struggle based on the fickle nature of pulse demand. I can only imagine how this latest geopolitical dust up between Canada and India will affect that market. Clearly though, it will be affected going into 2025.

In a way it’s eerily reminiscent of the earlier problems that Canada had with China over the Meng Wazhou Affair.  Canada made an arrest on behalf of the Americans in Vancouver of the Chinese Huawei executive, then China arrested and detained two Canadians and put tariffs on Canadian canola. Clearly there is a pattern here, Canada has a geopolitical problem with a bigger player and agricultural commodities being exported into these countries are low hanging fruit. Farmers are left holding the bag.

The day I led the big farm protest in Ottawa I likely was not thinking of any of this. I was younger then and I was just looking to get a Canadian agricultural safety net that worked. At the time I’m sure I thought some of the politicians in the federal government were villains past and present for not giving us what we wanted. However, when you look at the bigger picture of this low hanging fruit, it’s unlikely. Those politicians responsible for our Canadian agricultural safety nets are the same people that get caught up in these geopolitical tussles.  There is nothing fair about it.

On the horizon there could be even more trouble ahead. We have the American election in less than three weeks. Keep in mind that our American friends elect governments that are always America first.  This time around the Republicans are talking about reinstating tariffs across the board on Canadian goods as well as other countries around the world. Clearly, if it happens, it will be trouble for Canadian governments as well as Canadian farmers. The last times the American government did put tariffs on hurting American farmers they responded with a $30 billion assistance plan. At the same time, all Canadian farmers know there is no such thing here.

It’s all politics and is such mixed gruel. For instance, you might remember that trade wars are easy to win but in fact they have long lasting damaging effects on our farms, both American and Canadian.  In 2000/2021 the US supplied 31% of China’s corn imports versus just 6% in 2023/24. At the same time China imported less than 3% of their corn from Brazil in 2022 but now that’s up to 29% in 2023. Simply put, China likes to trade with no strings attached.  Trade wars have long memories.

For Canadian farmers this represents a real challenge. We can go on trade missions all we want but at the end of the day we are really prone to be the bearers of the low hanging fruit first touched in some “tit for tat” geopolitical struggle which might arise with Canada.  The Indian foreign interference is the latest example. There will be more, maybe post the US presidential election. We simply have to brace for it.