At a certain point getting ready for harvest has an endpoint and that end point is when you finally start moving into a freshly ripened field of soybeans. So far that has not happened to me, but I have spent each day spending a few minutes going over the combine trying to anticipate anything that might go wrong. Typically, with the grain head running so close to the ground soybean harvest represents a time when more things can go wrong. Let’s hope the October weather is kind so I can get harvesting in the next two weeks.

Of course, I’ve been wondering since the early spring how my soybeans are going to do. I’m sure you’ve grown weary of telling you how many times I had to replant as heavy water to damage the crops early. However, we also know that soybeans are the great liars, and a benign August and September did give me hope after such a difficult spring.  As we look ahead, not only do we have to worry about getting this crop in but of course we have to figure out best time to sell both soybeans and corn.

Or maybe I should say when we should sell unpriced grain as we move out of 2024 and into 2025?  We have had a bit of a run up in prices from what they were, and I got queries from farmers about what the market is going to do next. At the same time, I heard from other merchandisers who said that they were pricing soybeans at this time but lamented that these same farmers could have sold their soybeans for $2.00/bushel higher earlier in the season.

That latter point bothers me.  Let’s just say that it is a long and winding road when it comes to marketing our grain.  I have often said that farmers need to market their grain where they feel comfortable.  It is true that maybe some merchandisers can look back and say we should have marketed those soybeans for $2.00 higher earlier in the year.  Keep in mind that it’s easy to say that now because nobody knows what the price of grain is going to do, not me, not you and not the friendly merchandiser who is buying it from you.  All we can do is immerse ourselves in market factors and try to make the best decision we can.

For instance, who is to say that the futures price of soybeans will be $2.00 higher on January the 29th, 2025? Who is to say that the price of corn will not be $0.90 higher on January the 29th 2025? The point being is that nobody knows these things so making judgments on marketing grain should always be a personal private judgment.  We simply do not know what this grain market will do tomorrow, next month or next year.  Daily market intelligence will remain key.  Continuing to decipher market movements may surely give us clues for the next time around.

Case in point has been the recent futures price rally in both corn and soybeans. Since August the 16th we’ve had about an 85 cent/bu rise in the futures price of soybeans.  Needless to say, this is about $2.50 less for that same bushel if sold last December.  Similarly in corn we have seen about a 30 cent rise in the price per bushel since the end of August.  This is about $0.85 less per bushel then we could have gotten last December.  All through the last year market psyche has changed and it’s understandable how anise in futures prices over the last few weeks makes it feel a little better. At the same time, we didn’t have a lot of that classic seasonality that we usually have.  What we had is some of the biggest crops in U.S. history compounded by the biggest soybean and corn crop in Brazil last year. Here we are.

During this time there has certainly been a lot of finger pointing. Of course, much of that finger pointing has been within our own minds trying to weigh the pros and cons of what was going on in the market. Keep in mind there are always big differences in emotions when you have skin in the game versus being in a position where you only muse about it.  I get to muse about it, but I also get to grow it and then sell it. I win some and I lose some and I try hard.  The fact is grain marketing can be difficult depending on what you are measuring against.

Having said that, keep in mind my standard answer when somebody asks me where the prices of soybeans and corn will go.  I always say that “nobody knows”.  Also keep in mind, that doesn’t mean that we should be giving up and not look at the grain market with some type of discipline.  That’s important.  The key point is to not beat yourself up over decisions you make because nobody knows what the market will do.  What’s important is to market that grain where you are comfortable and profitable.  Make that grain marketing call and never look back.  There is enough to deal with looking ahead.