This past week has been a wonderful bit of weather across much of Ontario. We were inundated with bright sunshine and warm temperatures something that you couldn’t order up any better for maturing corn and soybeans.  Sometimes at this time of year when you get warm weather you can almost see the soybeans accelerating in their maturity and you can never seem to get the combine ready fast enough.  In fact, in some fields west of here I notice that combines were running. However, most of the crop in this area is staggered because of replanting.

As we turn the calendar date into fall this week producers will be hoping for good weather going into October when most of the crop will be harvested.  I know that if I could have my druthers, I would reorder all of this sunny warm weather for October. However, we all know it doesn’t always work out that way.  Fall weather can make things difficult especially as the days grow shorter.

I need to ask DTN Meteorologist John Baranick what weather he expects for Dresden Ontario over the next two months.  I’m sure that John would have an opinion but of course asking that question would draw chuckles around the room. I simply say that because as weather forecasts get longer sometimes farmers get more sceptical. I must say that earlier in my career I was in that camp. I’m not so much in that camp right now.

I say that because over the years I gained a little bit of patience, and the world has gained a lot of computer technology. Over the past several years there’s been research into how our oceans interact with the atmosphere giving us those weather phenomenon called El Nino and La Nina.  Generally speaking, when we have an El Nino weather event, we have better South American crops but when we have the La Nina, those same crops can suffer from drought.  There are different effects in North American agriculture but at the end of the day it’s all so real and it’s something years ago we would have never thought of.

Getting even more detailed about that would challenge my agricultural economics DNA.  I will leave that up to the meteorologists. However, I do think there’s something to it and that can especially be transcended into the aspect of agricultural marketing. If we have a hunch that the weather will change based on a El Nino or La Nina, then maybe we can market accordingly.  However, there is always the in between and that’s what gives weather forecasters a bad name.

Case in point is the risk involved with the bad weather forecast. Late last spring your loyal scribe was having trouble with very heavy rains damaging emerging soybean crops. I cannot remember the rainfall totals now, but it was about 10 inches of rain in a three-week time slot.  Within that time slot weather forecasters were talking about the percentage chance of showers and heavy rain but of course it was uneven everywhere on a micro level. Just a few kilometres away that 10 inches of rain over that same time slot was about two inches of rain, perfect for crop conditions.

The good thing is there has been so much more research into not only weather patterns but delivering that information to farmers.  For instance, as I was planting soybeans last spring, I could watch on my smart device the confluence of different colours signifying heavy rainfall. I will admit, in some ways it causes anxiety because all of those different colours don’t necessarily mean the same thing and sometimes, they don’t mean anything at all.  However, I’m old enough to know that we used to watch the television weather forecast the night before where they would use a chalkboard to guess where it was going to rain tomorrow. I don’t want to go back to those days. I much prefer research to continue and weather forecasting to get so much better.

So how dry is it in Brazil right now? Well, you tell me.  From what I read it’s still too dry to get that 169 MMT soybean crop in the ground and going at the present time.  You know what they say here in North America, plant in the dust and your bins will bust.    However, as of today, nobody really knows if and how we will get there.  Weather forecasts are not that good yet. That adds to the drama in our grain markets. Weather risk is seemingly everything especially at certain times of year.

What’s likely is that with the advance of technology and artificial intelligence, weather forecasting will get even better. In my mind, that cannot be construed as anything but a good thing.  We may even start believing that the December corn futures contract is not part of a weather derivative market. Anyway, for the next six weeks I just hope the weather is kind.  Is there any weather forecaster out there who can give me that?