My Crazy Friends In High Places

Excuse me, but I know some of these people.Â In fact I’ve stood on stage with both Jack Layton and Stephane Dion.Â Â Both of them were soundly defeated six weeks ago in our federal election.Â Somebody pinch me and see if I’m dreaming.Â They are about to form government with the help of somebody who wants nothing to do with Canada, Gillies Duceppe.

I find all of this very troubling.Â It is not because of who these politicians are because in my opinion both Dr. Jack Layton and Dr. Stephane Dion are very smart people and assets to Canada.Â However, it was only last October 14th when the Conservatives were returned with a strong minority government.Â In English Canada a vast majority supported the Conservative party.Â In Quebec, the separatists won out.Â However, the vanquished will now have power supported by separatists who want to destroy Canada.Â It’s both troubling and will prove to be very unstable.

Still, this is Canada and here we don’t huff and puff too much.Â It might all be troubling, but at the end of the day, we don’t have revolution in the streets because we are still a very rich country even though we are descending into economic recession.

In my mind these political gyrations would make far better sense if we were a year out from the last election.Â Heck, we’re not even two months out!Â So now I’m listening to the Green Shift author tell me about the economic stimulus which is coming.Â Â Â With the stock market plummeting again today, the optics of this just isn’t adding up.

It is all set to take place on December 8th.Â However, we might not get there.Â For instance if the government is defeated on December 8th the Prime Minister will ask Governor Michelle Jean to call an election.Â Michelle Jean may do that, however, she might follow the precedent of former Governor General Lord Bynd.Â In 1926 Lord Bynd denied Mackenzie King an election he had requested and turned power over to Conservative Authur Meighen.Â So Jean might so the same thing.Â With the NDP, Liberals and Bloc signing an accord, the smart money is on Jean turning power over to the coalition.

We’ll see, a week is a long time in politics and I expect things to get very nasty.Â I don’t expect the Conservatives to go down quietly.Â I expect a big PR campaign this week.Â I expect the Prime Minister to make a national TV address.Â I also expect them to ask the Governor General to prorogue Parliament, shut it down until another day.

However, you can debate tactics all you want.Â It’s going to boil down to math.Â The Conservatives have 143 seats and need 154 for a majority.Â Add the two independents into the mix and they’ll need 9 MP’s to vote with them.Â Expect them to pull a few Belinda Stronach moves.Â Surely they are going to try and make the math a bit tougher.

It should surely lead to interesting political times ahead.Â You can bet it will be very unstable.Â You can bet the Bloc Quebecois will do everything possible to undermine federal positions.Â When a new Liberal Prime Minister is crowned in May, I wouldn’t expect to see the coalition last much longer.Â At a certain point foxes and chickens cannot coexist together.

For vast stretches of rural Canada, there will be no representation.Â That’s interesting to me, because both Jack Layton and Stephane Dion have lined up behind me looking for rural votes.Â Needless to say I’m wondering what their memories are like.Â They both told me how much they were going to do for Canadian farmers.Â Jack Layton actually tapped me on the shoulder and introduced himself.Â I turned and told him how much Canadian farmers needed an agricultural safety net.Â With ten thousand farmers in front of him and me, he said, Phil, we’ll get you one.

So my next move as an agricultural economics writer is to pull in my IOU’s from my friends.Â It will be interesting because the strength of the Bloc Quebecois comes straight from Quebec farm country.Â You can bet Quebec will get their federal agricultural funding.Â Of course I’ll be wondering if my old friends Stephane and Jack will remember their promises to me in the heated moments of past farm rallies.

It all might go awry.Â Many Canadians are calling this madness.Â I think so too.

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