It’s another week and of course, I’m still looking for some sunshine.  Thankfully, we got a little bit of sunshine on the labour front last week as we got a resolution to the labour stoppage in the Saint Lawrence seaway. There certainly was a collective sigh of relief in eastern Canada as a big harvest needs to be moved and storage facilities were filling up fast. I read one comment from the Grain Farmers of Ontario that 1000 truck loads were cancelled last week from shipping grain to the terminals.

The costs of the work stoppage were many and of course estimates vary depending on what you measure. I heard that the cost damage with a wide variation ranged from $35 million a day to over $100 million a day. Let’s just hope with a little bit of sunshine and good weather that the grain will start flowing again and the backlog will be taken care of.  We don’t need any more strikes affecting Ontario agriculture in 2023.

As it is, it has turned into a fairly dark time this November of 2023. There are problems in Ontario fields getting things harvested but to a greater extent our grain reality and geopolitical reality are making things that much gloomier. Grain prices have continued to shuttle sideways and stagger waiting for that proverbial pent-up demand to kick in.  The problem is big supply is winning the day and it might take quite some time to change that narrative. Then, there are the geopolitics

I haven’t mentioned the Israel/Hamas fight in these pages because it is plastered across western media outlets, and you cannot escape it. I find it particularly troubling, and I cannot watch it. It is true that people in the Congo bleed too, but it doesn’t show up on western media outlets. Needless to say, there is a lot of strategic interests in the Middle East with the potential to upset the geopolitical apple cart affecting our green movement in the future. How this might manifest itself is anybody’s guess.

Simply put, the strategic interests within the Middle East region set up the parameters for a wider war, something nobody wants. It doesn’t take much, and things can get out of control, which could be the proverbial wild card prices in 2023 and 2024. Let’s hope it doesn’t happen

In the meantime, back in Canada we’ve got our own problems and successes. We actually had a backtrack by the federal government last week on the carbon tax as it applies to Atlantic Canada. Our politicians are tying themselves in knots now accusing the government of almost everything short of treason.  Bill C-234, a private members bill which would exempt barns, greenhouses, livestock buildings who use propane or natural gas for heating is now languishing in the Senate.  It’s been watered down on amendment and might be sent back to the House of Commons where it would die.

Better news might be seen in the Canadian economy where our current unemployment rate is 5.5%. This is about as low of an unemployment rate as I can remember, and it will give a continuing challenge to our government with regard to immigration numbers to fill job gaps. At the same time, we actually had an economic contraction in the second quarter of this year with some predicting the same for the third quarter which would put us into a technical recession.  However, some would argue, your loyal scribe included at the length, depth and breadth of any economic turn down are important and we are not there yet.

I do not expect us to ever get there anytime soon unless geopolitical events jump off the chart.  Many years ago, I might have had sympathy for some of the shriller political voices in this country, but those times are long past. I now view almost all people in government as diligent Canadians who are trying their best whether you disagree with them or not.  Just read DTN’s Elaine Kub’s column this week (What a Dollarized Argentina Would Mean for US Grain Prices) where she talks about an inflation rate of 138% and a presidential candidate who is considering scrapping their peso and doing business in the US dollar.  The challenges there are so much considerably steeper than they ever have been back here in Canada.

Of course, I haven’t even talked about the ongoing geopolitical problems that we have with Ukraine and Russia, but that sorry mess is all still there. Despite the initial deep flash within our grain markets, the trading algorithms have that all dialed in now.  However, it remains a wild card for global grain prices.

The challenge for Canadian farmers is to continue to balance all of these market factors as we move forward.  Heck, our loonie continues to languish in the 72 cent US level.  That should give you solace.  Managing our farming risks never grows, old, it just continues to evolve.