As Canadians, we like to think of ourselves as some of the world’s nice guys. You know, we don’t like to make waves on the world stage unless we’re trying to make peace somewhere or in the international arena of hockey. So last week when we had a tit for tat expulsion of a Chinese diplomat from Ottawa and a Canadian diplomat from Shanghai China, we are left with picking up the pieces.
It has come forward prominently this year with various news reports about China’s interference in Canadian elections as well as their targeting of Conservative politician Michael Chong and his family in Hong Kong and beyond. The election interference accusations are currently being studied by special rapporteur David Johnston, who will give his recommendations to the government. The accusations coming from Michael Chong spurred the diplomatic expulsion of Chinese diplomat Zhao Wei. In response the Chinese expelled Canadian diplomat Jennifer Lynn Lalonde from the Shanghai consulate. Of course, from a Canadian perspective we worry that it’s not over.
I’m specifically speaking about Canadian farm country with regard to the ramifications coming from China. We all remember the problems of putting Meng Wanzhou under house arrest. There was subsequently the arrest of the two Michaels in China. Then of course we remember the sanctions against Canada with regard to canola as a response. At the present time we have had the diplomatic expulsions on both sides, but there surely will be more problems with China.
From a Canadian perspective this isn’t good news, and it certainly isn’t good news from a Canadian agricultural perspective as China represents such a vast market for agricultural commodities. The Chinese are a relatively new important global trade partner, but clearly, we don’t see eye to eye from a geopolitical perspective. Unlike our American friends, there is no inherent kinship of sharing a continent. It just seems to be a cold hard deal when it comes to China Canadian relations these days.
I have often said in the past that Canada knows how to deal with their biggest trade partner the United States. We are never going to win any type of trade war with United States or any other war for that matter. So, over the years Canadian Prime Ministers regardless of political stripe have always pivoted and deflected the problems coming from the United States. There is never any other option because the American economy is so much bigger than us and so is their military. Unfortunately, we do not have the same type of relationship with China.
That doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t criticize and fight back against nefarious Chinese activity here in Canada. It simply means our relationship China will be much more difficult than it is with other important trading partners. China has shown in the past that it doesn’t need Australian barley and it certainly could choose the same in the future regarding Canadian canola or other agricultural commodities. Needless to say, somewhere in the mix the Canadian government has to find a way to protect Canadian citizens, like Mr. Michael Chong and others.
As it is, is not good and that is a problem for Canadians as we like it to be good with everybody. Why couldn’t we be like the Brazilians?  Well, one reason is that they have a climate where they can produce 154 MMT of soybeans and ship it mostly to China. They also are producing a corn crop this year a 4.94 billion bushels with much of that going to China. In fact, Brazil is exactly what China wants, a place where agricultural commodities are produced free of any geopolitical baggage that might be considered unfriendly to the People’s Republic of China.
In Canada it’s difficult to respond that way. Our canola might be important to us, but it is an easy target compared to Brazilian soybeans. Despite that, our government has the tough job of protecting Canadians, building our economy in an environment where one of the world’s biggest trading entities isn’t very friendly to us anymore.
As many of you know I have spent and will likely continue to spend a lot of time in Asia. It’s a place where you feel the influence of China in India every day. You can see it on the streets, you can see it almost everywhere. I have certainly seen my share of Chinese made tractors in the field. You’ve also heard me say that I wish I could gather many of my farmer readers up, put them on a jet plane and have them take a tour in Asia to see how dynamic that burgeoning food demand is. China is a big part of that, and it is something to see, feel and taste.
However, it’s increasingly unlikely I’ll ever go to China again. After the two Michaels were incarcerated and with the latest nefarious accusations of Chinese interference, it might not be such a safe place anymore. Ditto for Canadian agricultural commodities going to Asia. This geopolitical thing has got ugly. Who knew Canadians would be singled out.