Farming Wobbles Toward a $170/Tonne Carbon World


The end of March came and went and as I grow older, I like to say good riddance.  There is something about cold weather and growing older that doesn’t mix quite well. While I was an avid cross-country skier in my youth, falling down doesn’t carry as same resonance that it used to.  I think I could be one of those individuals that actually likes to live in warm weather all year round.

If you believe is the climate is changing, we’re getting warmer period of course, I am a believer in climate change, it is getting warmer but maybe not at the pace I would like near Dresden Ontario.  Needless to say, climate change has always added up to a net benefit for polar country agriculture such as Canada and Russia.  Of course, we’re talking years down the road, but it will come sooner if the globe doesn’t do anything to stop the relentless warming of this earth.

I am far from an expert on climate change, but I do not try to argue with the scientists who lay out a very good synopsis on global warming. Somehow, we have to reduce the carbon going into the atmosphere in order to cool this planet a few more degrees. As a society, we have failed over and over again and who knows if our latest efforts will be any different. This past week the Canadian government set its latest emissions reduction plan. The Prime Minister made the big announcement in Vancouver last Tuesday.

Keep in mind the Canadian government wants Canada to be a zero emissions country by 2050.  In this latest plan the government set out ways to reduce emissions covering 7 industries.  These are oil and gas, transportation, buildings, electricity, heavy industry, waste and last but not least agriculture.  This is going to cost us $9.1 billion overtime.  Of course, many of us are wondering how this will impact Canadian farmers on a day to day basis.  Many of you have been wondering how to get some of that $9.1 billion others are simply saying how much is this going to cost us. Surely, it is a double-edged sword.

Through the years many farmers became accustomed to the narrative regarding soil conservation and carbon capture. For instance, many of us were led to believe that by reducing our tillage practices farmers would be able to participate in carbon markets as we sequestered soil carbon.  There had been the thought 30 years ago that carbon capture would be a good source of revenue for farms in the future. I remember writing a column about this 30 years ago and I actually used $80 as the price of carbon.  I don’t know what that is inflation adjusted for 2022, but it is certainly a lot higher than what we have today.

In Canada the federal carbon price is rising to $50 a tonne in April 2022 and increasing by $15 annually until it reaches $170 in 2030.  Our federal government has always argued that the carbon tax is revenue neutral, and I have always disagreed with that.  I have always felt that it’s not revenue neutral for rural Canadians and certainly not revenue neutral for Canadian farmers.  However, there has been some recognition of this by the federal government.  However, I do not think it is enough and our farm organizations will have to continue lobbying to make changes.

In the emissions reduction plan released last week the government promised that they would be providing incentives to adopt on farm practices such as rotational grazing, cover cropping, regenerative agriculture, nutrient management, manure management and agro forestry.  There was a specific breakdown of money going to be made available to affect all of these areas. I’d like to wish the government luck, especially because success in reducing carbon emissions to me is essential. However, I’m not quite sure of the end result especially during these difficult times.

What do I mean?  As farmers, we all know the state of the global economy now being savaged by the war in Ukraine and Russia.  The bombs keep dropping and with it are much higher energy and agricultural commodity prices. At a time when there is great need to keep the heat on in the northern hemisphere, countries like Germany are making plans to ration the use of natural gas. Prices are heading skyward and might head even higher if Russia decides to cut them off.  On top of this western governments are increasing carbon taxes on energy that just makes things more expensive.  We’re being caught between the climate change rock and a hard place.  There doesn’t seem to be any good way out.

It will mean the road ahead will be difficult both practically and politically.  Time is of the essence according to the federal government especially when it’s concerning agriculture because as they say in the report, there’s only “8 growing seasons” remaining until 2030 when the carbon price will top out at $170/tonne.

More timelines on these policies will certainly be initiated when the federal budget comes down on April 7th.  Our finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, the daughter of an Albertan canola farmer will focus the economic through a climate change lens.  I do not expect to hear anything about carbon sequestration or ethanol or even biodiesel. However, I hope I’m wrong because farmers for the last 40 years have been talking about those things especially in regard to the environment and reducing carbon emissions.  We all want to cool the planet by about 3 degrees. The hard part is agreeing on the road to getting there.