It is cold in Ontario farm country.  In fact I’m hiding under a rock tonight because it’s suppose to freeze and 60% of my corn is at the two-leaf stage.  Oh, well, its not like I’ve haven’t been here before.  I just can’t wait for that 10-week period which comes annually in Canada when I don’t have to wear a coat.

Cold and wet we are used to in this country especially when it comes to spring planting conditions.  A few years ago I was planting corn on April 25th and it was snowing so hard I could hardly see to drive.  A few years later I hopped off the combine from picking corn, boarded a plane for Grande Prairie Alberta and got off to –40-degree temperatures.  As Jerry Gulke says, “you’ve got to love this country”.

We can kid each other all we want about cold in this country and how we can use a little bit of global warming.  However, on the political front its pretty obvious the stage is being set to turn global warming in this country on its ear.  Liberal leader and possibly future Prime Minister Stephane Dion is poised to introduce a “carbon tax” on carbon emissions if he gets elected.  That my friends is serious business for Canadians.  It could surely turn out to be serious business for Canadian agriculture.

In Canada we are way over due for a federal election.  Minority governments in this country last on average 18 months.  At the present time the Conservative government is 28 months old and will last at least until fall.  So a carbon tax is not about to happen.  However, with Stephane Dion set to announce Liberal policy, circumstances may come together either later this fall or next year if elected to bring a “carbon tax” to Canada.  That’s the timeline, one in which Canadian agriculture is exceedingly not ready.

Think of a “carbon tax” as a tax on “pollution.”  Think of it as a tax on emissions of carbon dioxide or some other greenhouse gas.  The theory goes if we reduce carbon emissions, we save the planet, we reduce the effects of global warming, and the ice stays frozen in Nunavut.

In Canada many of us have been waiting for the “carbon cheque” in the mail seemingly forever.  In November of 1999 I wrote the following about carbon and carbon sequestering.

“Clearly, it may be already on a fast track.  Carbon markets are being designed in the United Kingdom on the Intentional Petroleum Exchange and in Australia.  Major companies such as United Technologies, British Petroleum and Royal Dutch Shell have also committed to large reductions in their own greenhouse gas emission.  This expansion is bringing new investments in technologies and research needed to monitor and standardize carbon measurement.  As it stands now, the equipment and technology is available to measure the amount of carbon sequestered on your farm.  Pricing carbon at $50/ tonne, only wets my appetite for those cheques to start rolling in. (DTN Under the Agridome Nov 18, 1999)

Needless to say in 2008, that $50/tonne figure doesn’t wash anymore.  Surely like everything else the price of carbon has gone up.  However, with Stephane Dion proposing a “carbon tax”, the days where Canadian farmers would be able to openly trade carbon “contracts” or “credits” going forward might remain a fantasyland theory.

However, I don’t know how it would work.  A “carbon tax” is a lot different than a trading system.  Anything, which pollutes would be taxed and you would think this would reduce taxes in other areas.  Nonetheless at the end of the day the aim is to reduce carbon emissions, reduce global warming and stem climate change.  Canadian agriculture will be a player, but when and if would surely lie on the political fortunes of Stephane Dion and his merry band of Liberals.

Mixing this proposal into the ethanol boogeyman and its effect on corn prices going forward could be the ultimate Ph.D thesis.  However, at this early stage all I think Canadians will see is “Tax, Tax, Tax!”  At every juncture going forward we’ll hear “Tax, Tax, Tax” from Stephen Harper.  Stephane Dion might be one of the smartest men I’ve ever met, but the optics of this one will get out of control very quickly.  I cannot see this being a winning formula for the Liberals or Canadian agriculture.

However, dissing the “carbon tax” doesn’t solve anything.  The inconvenient truth is global warming is a reality and especially in the west we keep wasting energy, which continues the vicious cycle.  At the end of the day carbon sequestering on Canadian farms needs to be valued and paid for.  Canadian farmers are surely poised for it. However, getting there with or without a carbon tax has surely proved elusive.