Next Monday I’ll be meeting with Liberal leader Stephane Dion. What you say? No, he’s not coming to Chatham-Kent to meet me. Hardly. Frankly at this point, I don’t know much about what he’s doing. I’ve been asked to chair a roundtable discussion on agriculture with him in Chatham. Later that day Dion is scheduled at a farm rally near Wallaceburg.

For local political observers it’s a pretty big deal. Southwestern Ontario had been painted red from 1993 to 2006. With Reform, the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives splitting the opposition vote during that time it was a free ride for local Liberals. That all changed in the election of 2006. A year and a half later local Liberals are looking to get some of these seats back. Dion, I’m sure will be in for quite an education among local politicos.

My impressions of Dion have always been positive. I’ve liked him ever since he showed up in Ottawa with his trademark knapsack. At the time Prime Minister Chretien needed more Quebec representation and Stephane Dion and Pierre Pettigrew went right into cabinet. As a federal minister Stephane Dion was credited as the author of the “Clarity Act” which set out defined criteria for any future Quebec referendum on sovereignty. That drove Quebec separatists crazy.

If you follow these political events, you’ll know Dion wasn’t “supposed” to be the leader of the Liberal party. In fact many political observers thought Bob Rae or Michael Ignatieff would grab the brass ring. However Stephane Dion came from a razor thin third place margin on the first ballot at the Liberal convention to overcome the better-known contenders. For a Liberal party, which had coroneted Paul Martin, this leadership outcome was akin to a bottom of the ninth inning grand slam.

So we will see how Dion does next week in southwestern Ontario. Interestingly he’s dealing in a political minority environment which is much more stable than predicted. After Stephen Harper passed legislation fixing the date for the next federal election in 2009, this parliament seemed to settle down. Now the onus was on the opposition to defeat the Conservative government to spawn an election. With the separatists retreating in Quebec during the last provincial election, any Bloc move to defeat the Conservatives has grown mute. It would seem our “minority Parliament” is much more stable than predicted and may live out its mandate until 2009.

That’s a far cry from what I said when Stephen Harper was elected. At that time I said we’d be back at it in 2007. However, I no longer see that in the cards. Even Stephen Harper has bought into it. As I write this he’s set to shuffle up to 12 cabinet ministers on Tuesday. With his minority government becoming more stable, he’s setting the course for the next two years.

That may go up in smoke. I dunno. It’s all up to the opposition. Stranger things have happened. With Afghanistan boiling in the background, you never know what disastrous event could raise its ugly head. Political fortunes can turn on a dime.

Keep in mind the “seat arithmetic” of the current federal parliament complicates everything. Currently there are 125 Conservatives, 97 Liberals, 48 Bloc Quebecois, 29 NDP, and 3 Independent MP’s. Six seats are vacant. Breaking out of this in our current political environment is very difficult. Canada’s penchant for a “pizza parliament” has changed historic political assumptions.

Case in point is the Liberals and Conservatives. They both are mired at about 30% in national polls. These numbers won’t get them a majority of seats. Their growth is limited because of the presence of the Bloc Quebecois who get a majority of Quebec seats. Further complicated the arithmetic is the Green Party, which typically will garner 8-9% support in national polls. That’s not much but it used to go to the major parties. Put these political facts together and it’s almost impossible to get into majority territory.

The political pros that run the big parties know this. Yes, if you smash the Bloc all this changes, but even with sovereignty waning in Quebec Gillies Duceppe continues to out poll every other federal political leader in Quebec. The new leader of the PQ, Pauline Marios has some juice too. I cannot see the Bloc going away unless French-speaking Quebecers unexpectedly turn against them in a federal election.

What’s this mean, proverbial minority government? I think so. I can do the math just like anybody else. For Stephane Dion, Jack Layton and Gillies Duceppe that is a real challenge. What to do? In the months to come we’ll see if they decide to roll the dice and force an early election.