You see signs of it everywhere.  I am talking about economic recovery.  The 2008 economic meltdown had a tremendous hangover and for many of us it is still here.  However, I often ask people and local business if they think the economy is improving.  The response I’m getting back is business is starting to pick up and the recession is over.

It is a deceptive thing.  For those people without jobs or who have lost their jobs over the last year and a half I’m sure it doesn’t feel that way.  For instance the unemployment rate in Canada is currently 8.2% and economists are saying that it is set to drop to 8.1% later this year and close to 7% in 2012.  It all sounds good except for the fact he was only a couple short years ago that the Canadian unemployment rate was at 5.9%.  So if you don’t have a job or you have lost your job it still feels pretty tough out there.

The good news is the economic numbers are getting better.  The problem is a lot of these good economic numbers are not translating themselves into bigger job numbers.  It makes me think that maybe the big corporate institutions are getting richer and their incremental percentage rise in income is getting better but it’s all based on the poor results of 2008 and 2009.  The real secret to getting a robust economic recovery going long term is to have solid job gains to spur economic wealth.  Of course that is such an elusive goal but for those who have the pay grade to try to change it, it certainly is a challenge.

Canada’s finance Minister Jim Flaherty is one of those individuals.  I think my favorite job would be either his job as finance minister or as Bank of Canada Gov.  The Canadian economy is set to grow this year at 3.7%, 3.1% in 2011 but is expected to slow to 1.9% in 2012.  A good thing for Mr. Flaherty is our economic growth is a little bit more robust than he projected.  At the end of the day this will mean that his budget deficits will be less and the effect on unemployment should be mitigated as well.

There is no reason now to sugarcoat exactly what is going on.  Our Canadian jobs economy in many ways is related to the value of the Canadian dollar.  Sure you could make an argument on a regional basis that our jobs economy has everything to do with the demand for our commodities.  It is such a balancing act and unfortunately our well-managed economy compared to the rest of the world has caused demand for our dollar to skyrocket.  Finding our way in a world economy when the Canadian loonie is on par with the American greenback is like trying to work with a 50-pound weight on your back all the time.  Or at least it feels that way when you’ve done it for years without that weight on your back.

Key to our jobs market coming back big time will be economic recovery in the United States.  Thankfully, that is well on its way with economic growth rates such as 5.9% in the last quarter of 2009.  However, we are climbing out of such a hole created from the economic meltdown of 2008.  So far the American recovery is anemic and it has been a jobless recovery.  If the Americans sustain their economic growth and jobs eventually will come back and depending on what the US Federal Reserve does the value of the loonie will be in the balance.  Cutting to the chase if the American economy grows quickly and the Federal Reserve raises interest rates ahead of the Bank of Canada jobs numbers in Canada will go up and our economy will benefit.  It’s a long shot sitting here in April 2010 but I do see scenarios where that can happen.

Some might say that it also has to do with productivity gains.  In other words for our Canadian economy to get back to 6% unemployment rates we have to do things cheaper and faster.  I don’t know if this is true for that specific number but I do know the productivity gains are always helpful in boosting wealth and employment.  I feel like I’m working hard enough and I’m sure you do too.  Is just one of those things that goes with a democratic society which we live in.

Of course there are some who worry about the “double dip” recession.  In other words we are at the top of the first dip, ready to go down again.  I don’t see it that way.  However there surely are arguments for that too.  But for now let’s hope our cup is half full.  The recession we just passed through was bad enough.