I am one of the earliest birds in the neighborhood.  Yes I do get up early but I’m talking about planting corn.  There are some in my neighborhood who cringe with the memory of me planting corn in the snow.  In fact I remember with snow blinding my windshield whether I was doing the right thing.  I kept thinking, like it or not I plant corn on April 25 don’t matter what the year is.

Then the year 2010 comes along and if we had wanted I think Ontario corn could be planted by now.  The optimum date to plant corn in Ontario is before May 8th.  That’s based on whole bunch of good science but it is generally recognized the earlier you plant corn the better yields you will get.  Since I like to plant corn in April I’m a big believer.

However, there are limits even to me getting out there.  I once asked a provincial agricultural official about his advice regarding planting corn early, I said how about planting in late March?  He hesitated and told me that might be a tad early and I agreed.  Needless to say near Mount Bridges Ontario a friend of mine planted a few acres this year in March.  So maybe I’ll never be the earliest bird again.

Next week at this time I am sure if the weather holds corn planting in Ontario will be in full swing.  Who knows, maybe it will be snowing.  I’ve often said I’m usually freezing to death when I plant corn, so we will see what happens.  The challenge this year is finding a way to profit while planting corn.  From what I am hearing, Ontario won’t get the acres into corn this year based on the agricultural economics of our at par world.

I have been thinking about 2 million Ontario corn acres since the fall.  However, it looks like both Ontario and Quebec will be cutting back on corn this year.  It would seem that farmer intentions have been jaded from the low-test weight and tough conditions of last fall getting that corn into the bin.  While corn in southwestern Ontario was a very good crop in 2009, in much of Ontario and Quebec producers received less than three dollars a bushel after the discounts.  That memory is lingering as planters get set to role next week.  Maybe soybeans will be the big winners.

Of course the market might have different ideas.  We have recently seen a rally in corn, soybeans and wheat futures.  In fact this may be a bit of an early start on the seasonal rally in these grains.  Of course Canadian producers have been caught in the trap of higher futures but much lower basis because of that at par dollar.  So if the rally continues there may be pricing opportunities to get those 2 million corn acres in Ontario. Needless to say, read any commentary on DTN plus my own for the Grain Farmers of Ontario and we are bearish.  Futures spreads are weakening between some months but the commercial buyers know we have enough corn and soybeans way into 2011.

What I find interesting is the money from the noncommercial traders.  My DTN colleague John Sanow wrote today in his column “noncommercial traders held a net-long futures position of about 18,100 contracts as of April 6, representing the smallest net-long position since September 2009 when it reached 11,426 contracts. This is a far cry from the 273,133 net-long position they held as of January 12”.  John also mentioned you need to go back to December 2005 to find the noncommercial side of the market in a net short position.  In other words the noncommercial money is here to stay and in fact seems to be looking for some action this spring.

It makes me think that something must be up with regard to a price rally.  In fact maybe it might be time for some creative pricing for Canadian producers.  Do we hedge the futures prices only and take a flyer on the basis hoping that the Canadian dollar dives down to $.90 US by harvest time?  Or if you believe some of the high-priced Canadian economists who say a $1.10 US or a $1.25 US is in our future should we just take the best new crop cash price we can get?  I think there are options for us all here on this seasonal rally.  Hourly checks of the market might be in order.

At the same time it would seem our global economy is back with a vengeance.  In 2010 that’s great news for grain demand.  We’ll take it.  So as planters role over the next two weeks across Ontario, Quebec and the prairies it will be important to gauge markets closely.  I just hope the snow crossing my tractor windshield doesn’t blind me from the obvious.  Pulling the trigger on pricing is always a challenge.